Failing Of A Long Jump

Has the wheel started moving? Last week I had presented the scenario of How Will The Bear Market Saga Unfold? Inspite of all the pseudo positive atmosphere being created by various components of Indian Stock Market and its valued participants, Nifty failed to reach those heights ( read 5000 and above). After a week if we take stock , things are not as rosy as it is being projected by vested parties. I think there is something fishy in the way markets are being made to behave. The day IIP data was going to be published a valued B-Channel flashed IIP data before it was officially published and that too incomplete/wrong. What can be the motive behind this? Markets however reacted to the data being flashed. It high time the regulators take note of the parties who are trying to manipulate markets.

On the other hand Interactive iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP) has fallen almost 5.5% till 13.08.08 while Nifty fell by 2.2% only last week. Another omnious sign for the coming week. Not to forget that we have a truncated week and by the time we open on Monday ( 18.08.08) much water would have flown under the bridge. Scenario in US and Europe are not rosy too.

Charts as on today also don't look like there is much cheer for BULLS next week.

In the daily charts Nifty is still in the channel. RSI, MACD and Slow Stoch are all indicating falls next week. In the weekly charts RSI has turned down after facing resistance at 50 levels ( indicated by blue line). Slow stoch ( weekly) is indicative of the BEAR week coming next.

So in true Olympic spirit the much awaited long jump of Nifty from 3790 to supposedly 5000 and above has failed. The path to the failure was indicated in my last post How Will The Bear Market Saga Unfold? 

" 4577.53 4558.30 4539.07 4500.60 4462.13 4442.90 4423.67 4385.20 4346.73 4327.50 4308.27 4269.80 4231.33 4212.10 4192.87 4154.40 4115.93 4096.70 4077.47 4039.00 4000.53 3981.30 3962.07 3923.60 3885.13 3865.90 3846.67 3808.20 3769.73 3750.50 3731.27 3692.80 3654.33 3635.10 3615.87 3577.40 3538.93 3519.70 3500.47 3462.00 3423.53 3404.30 3385.07 3346.60 3308.13 3288.90 3269.67 3231.20 "  Figures in red have all been achieved this week . Just check how the lows of the week match with the levels.

Important Levels for this week are:

Upside - 4457.84, 4476.26, 4494.68, 4531.53, 4568.37, 4586.79, 4605.21, 4642.05

Downside : 4611.25, 4591.88, 4572.5, 4533.75, 4495, 4475.63, 4456.25, 4417.5, 4378.75, 4359.38, 4340, 4301.25, 4262.5, 4243.13, 4223.75, 4185, 4146.25, 4126.88, 4107.5, 4068.75, 4030, 4010.63, 3991.25, 3952.5

Jesse Livermore


"The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements.

I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up. "

Mean while for a read this week
The 5 C's of Trading Consistency

"To summarize, the 5 C's of trading consistency are:


• Clarity
• Commitment
• Courage
• Confidence
• Calmness

Consistency is most difficult and most readily proven during tough times. How someone weathers the storms demonstrates their skills."