FII's - The Open Secrets You Would Like To Know

One news item from Economic Times which seemed like another run of a mill story was actually more than it. The article speaks about the performance of Indian funds listed in US. So, What?

No, actually this is like an indicator of the FII activity on a future date told one day before. Don't believe me. Read the story....

A 5 day Comparison Chart of NSE and iPath MSCI India Index ETN.Check previous day activity to know how Nifty will behave today. For technically inclined guys, Pls check Interactive iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP) Live Chart (Yahoo)

Interactive iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP) Live Chart (Yahoo) Live Chart (Yahoo)

Bears lost last week but.......

It was Mangal all the way. Indian Markets blasted off like they had not done even in hightime Bull Market. For 5 straight days Nifty zoomed 749 points from the low of 3790 on July 16th. The rally could have gone abated had it not faced the upper trendline of the downward channel. Couple this with the fact that some intelligent traders had other thoughts at 4500 levels.

Next week is a sell week with Slow Stoch pointing downwards.However as next week is an expiry week it will be an operator driven market.

Key Upside Levels : 4123, 4174, 4225, 4276, 4327, 4378, 4429, 4480, 4514
Key Downside Levels : 4482, 4425, 4368, 4312, 4255, 4198, 4141, 4085, 4047, 4028, 3971, 3914, 3858, 3801, 3744, 3687, 3631

Mangal ya Amangal

WOW! What a week... Phew..

We started off around 4000 peaked at 4118 came down to 3790 and zoomed back to 4092. Now this is what is called a traders week. Bulls and Bears happy with their pound of flesh. People who rode the bulls and bears at right time are also happy.

So Nifty 50-50 is actually divided 50-50.

Now what can we expect next week. Next week we have a Major political event which will define the market for quite sometime. A win for UPA can sooth some nerves and a loss can ensure nervous breakdown. Monday should be a very boring day in market unless something dramatic happens which makes markets dance to its tune. Tuesday will decide which way Market breaks out. It is already at resistance as seen in the daily chart ( I expect Monday also will respect this trendline). A breakout on upside will mean atleast nifty touching close to 4300-4500 which will also respect the weekly trend ( chart attached below)

Key levels for next week are

Upside: 4105,4121,4137,4169, 4216,4263,4311,4358,4405,4453,4500,4548
Any break of 4169 will mean that we can touch 4263 next week where we can face huge resistance. Next level for nifty after 4263 will be 4358.

Downside: 4066,4015,3963,3912,3860,3809,3757,3706,3654,3603,3551,3500.
If by any chance we break 3706 this week then 3603 and 3500 is a high probability

Think hard because its your money.

Nifty Fifty - 50 - 50

Nifty Fifty , our beloved index which took world by storm is all set to hit 50-50. Nifty which hit an all time high in Jan 08 topping out at 6300 levels is going to hit 3500-3600 levels in couple of weeks ( for technical people charts attached).

Whoosh!!! Almost 3000 points decline in a span of 6 months is something amazing which happened. A lot of people might have given all sorts of explanation for this decline. Onset of Bear Market, US Economy... blah blah. I would like to add one more to this..

Do you remember P-Notes? Yes, the reason why we hit circuit not far from now. The govt then had asked the FII's to phase out P-notes in 18 months and the FII's obliged to the govt. Till now they have taken out 27000 crores this year ( ET Link). I am sure not all P-notes will be converted to registered FII's and some will find it difficult to disclose their identity in public. The best they could do was to pull out and this is what they are doing.

Nature has strange way to reconcile things. So we can give it any name Bear Market, US recession, P-notes etc etc. One thing is sure what goes up has to come down ( and afterwards will go UP )

Mull over this chart for time being